Float · Phase A prototype

Does the forecast actually work?

Float claims it can name the day an SME runs out of cash, and how deep the hole is, early enough to close it cheaply. This is that engine, run against 200 synthetic UAE SMEs whose true behaviour it was never shown. Below is what it got right, what it got wrong, and one case where the correct answer was to do nothing.

Measured, not promised

Mean across five independent cohorts of 200. The engine estimates each business from a short, noisy history — the same handicap it would have on day one of a real pilot.

Four businesses, four different answers

The shaded band is the forecast’s 10th–90th percentile: Float never reports a single line. The dashed path is what actually happened.