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Trading the shape, not the direction

Kink sells an expiration whose implied volatility is richer than its neighbours imply — but only the part of that richness the rest of its asset class does not share. What every name shows at once is a scheduled macro event. What one name shows alone is the trade.

Candidates

Every kink found on the latest scan, with the decomposition that decided it and every reason it was refused.

macro — shared across the cohort, discarded idiosyncratic — the tradeable part

The volatility surface

Implied vol across every strike and every expiration. The agent trades one slice through this — the ridge in amber is the at-the-money line, and the bump in it is what it is looking for.

Why not this one?

Type any ticker the agent scanned and it will tell you exactly what it decided and why. Most of what it does is decline.

Positions

ContractQtyAvgUnrealised

Calibration

Does a bigger edge actually predict more convergence? Scored against every candidate observed, not just those traded — the refused ones carry most of the sample.

Edge at entrynHit rateMean decay

Decision journal

Scans, refusals, adjudications and the literal Alpaca CLI commands — newest first.

    On the P&L above. This account has traded for days, not months. Whatever it shows is one draw from a wide distribution and is not evidence of skill either way. The claim is about the decision process — every candidate, refusal and order journalled and reproducible — not the terminal equity.